By: The Energy Report and Colin Healey
Source: Brian Sylvester of The Energy Report
With energy demand looking up in China and Japan, both coal and uranium are likely to experience an uptick. But which producers will move with prices? Colin Healey of Haywood Securities explains to The Energy Report why it's time for investors to get excited again.
The Energy Report: Colin, the Japanese government is predicting higher-than-expected GDP growth of 2.5% for 2013. As the world's second-largest importer of thermal coal, that should be good news for investors in that space. Are you buying Japan's optimism?
Colin Healey: It's a positive for Japan, but the news isn't necessarily super bullish for thermal coal in a global context. China will remain much higher in terms of economic growth than Japan, and it will remain the top importer of thermal coal. China's consumption of thermal coal will continue to be the major determinant in pricing for the seaborne market.
TER: What's Haywood's thermal coal price forecast for 2013 versus 2012?
CH: In January, we revised our forecast downward for Newcastle thermal coal, which is the basis for our baseline thermal coal product. We revised our 2013 average price forecast down from $115 per ton to $100 per ton. The spot price at the time was $91 per ton. The price through 2012 was quite suppressed, so even at $100 per ton, we're looking at an average price above those seen in H2/12. This represents somewhat of a recovery for coal pricing.
TER: Getting back to Japan, it is also a key market when it comes to uranium. Is the new Japanese government closer to once again embracing nuclear power post-Fukushima?
CH: It looks that way. Recently some Japanese newspapers reported that guidelines have been established. These are new safety guidelines that the nuclear reactor operators will have to comply with in a reactor fleet restart scenario. Details are still a bit sketchy as to the specifics of the new guidelines though.
One of our most important near-term catalysts for the uranium space is the possible restart of reactors in Japan. We expect the restarts to be progressive, and that represents a significant potential catalyst for the uranium price. As the restart progresses, Japanese nuclear fleet operators will stop deferring delivery of contracted uranium. We'll initially see evidence of that in a recovering spot price for uranium.
TER: Throughout much of 2012, the market looked for the uranium spot price to find support above $55 per pound (/lb). What's your spot price forecast for 2013?
CH: Right now the spot price of uranium is $43.65/lb according to UxC. For 2013, we're looking for a $60/lb spot price. Longer term, uranium should average $67.50/lb. That represents a significant recovery in the spot price. Our longer-term price projection is $70/lb spot and $75/lb long-term contract.
TER: What's your thesis when it comes to small-cap uranium producers?
CH: With uranium producers in general, there are only a handful of choices in the space. When you look at production names, you want to find the companies that are past the growing pains of initial production and that are achieving record production quarter over quarter. The period of ramping up production can present many challenges and can deliver unexpected news to the market that can expose the investor to surprise or shock movements in the stock price.
TER: What are your parting thoughts on this space as to what investors should be excited about in 2013?
CH: Investors can get excited about the fundamental investment thesis that we have in the space, which is a supply/demand forecast that calls for a supply shortfall. At some point in 2013 or early 2014, we expect that to result in an extended period of higher uranium prices. Many of the companies we're highlighting today that are either in production or contemplating production by the end of 2013 could be big beneficiaries of those higher uranium prices.
Don't forget that the restart of Japanese reactors could be another big catalyst for the uranium price. We will keep our eye focused on the spot price. Any material $5–7 recovery in the spot price could be a signal that Japan is no longer deferring deliveries or at least a portion of the operators in Japan are no longer deferring deliveries of uranium. That would be a critical first signal that reactor restarts are being contemplated in Japan.
TER: Thanks again for your time, Colin.
Colin Healey joined Haywood in 2008 as a mining associate focusing on the uranium, iron ore and coal sectors. Immediately prior to his arrival at Haywood, Healey worked at a major Canadian bank as an analyst structuring debt financing across a wide variety of industries. Prior to joining the finance industry seven years ago, he worked for eight years as quality manager in an ISO 17025-accredited laboratory that performed extensive assay and analysis work for major mining and precious metals refining companies. He holds a Master of Business Administration from the Schulich School of Business at York University, majoring in finance and investments, as well as a Bachelor of Commerce degree, majoring in computer information systems, and a technical diploma in mechanical engineering.
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-- Posted Friday, February 15 2013 | Digg This Article |
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